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Creators/Authors contains: "Pavlovic, Vladimir"

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  1. Abstract Disk continuum reverberation mapping is one of the primary ways we learn about active galactic nuclei (AGN) accretion disks. Reverberation mapping assumes that time-varying X-rays incident on the accretion disk drive variability in UV–optical light curves emitted by AGN disks and uses lags between X-ray and UV–optical variability on the light-crossing timescale to measure the radial temperature profile and extent of AGN disks. However, recent reverberation mapping campaigns have revealed oddities in some sources, such as weakly correlated X-ray and UV light curves, longer than anticipated lags, and evidence of intrinsic variability from disk fluctuations. To understand how X-ray reverberation works with realistic accretion disk structures, we perform 3D multifrequency radiation magnetohydrodynamic simulations of X-ray reprocessing by the UV-emitting region of an AGN disk using sophisticated opacity models that include line opacities for both the X-ray and UV radiation. We find there are two important factors that determine whether X-ray irradiation and UV emission will be well-correlated: the ratio of X-ray to UV luminosity and significant absorption. When these factors are met, the reprocessing of X-rays into UV is nearly instantaneous, as is often assumed, although linear reprocessing models are insufficient to fully capture X-ray reprocessing in our simulations. Nevertheless, we can still easily recover mock lags in our light curves using software that assumes linear reprocessing. Finally, the X-rays in our simulation heat the disk, increasing temperatures by a factor of 2–5 in the optically thin region, which could help explain the discrepancy between measured and anticipated lags. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 22, 2026
  2. Abstract Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are found in the centers of massive galaxies, and galaxy mergers should eventually lead to SMBH mergers. Quasar activity has long been associated with galaxy mergers, so here we investigate if supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are preferentially found in quasars. Our multimessenger investigation folds together a gravitational-wave background signal from NANOGrav, a sample of periodic active galactic nucleus candidates from the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey, and a quasar mass function, to estimate an upper limit on the fraction of quasars which could host an SMBHB. We find at 95% confidence that quasars are at most 5 times as likely to host an SMBHB as a random galaxy. Pulsar timing arrays may therefore be more likely to find SMBHBs by prioritizing quasars over a random selection of galaxies in their searches. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 2, 2026
  3. Abstract We present a systematic search for radio active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in dwarf galaxies using recent observations taken by the Very Large Array Sky Survey (VLASS). To select these objects, we first establish a criterion to identify radio-excess AGNs using the infrared-radio correlation parameter,q, that describes the tight relation between radio and IR emission in star-forming galaxies. We find a 2σthreshold ofq< 1.94 to select radio-excess AGNs, which is derived from a sample of ∼7000 galaxies across the full mass range in the NASA-Sloan Atlas that have radio and IR detections from VLASS and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer, respectively. We create catalogs of radio-excess AGNs and star-forming galaxies and make these available to the community. Applying our criterion to dwarf galaxies with stellar massesM≲ 3 × 109Mand redshiftsz≤ 0.15, and carefully removing interlopers, we find 10 radio-excess AGNs with radio-optical positional offsets between ∼0″ and 2.′3 (0–2.7 kpc). Based on statistical arguments and emission line diagnostics, we expect the majority of these radio-excess AGNs to be associated with the dwarf host galaxies rather than background AGNs. Five of the objects have evidence for hosting AGNs at other wavelengths, and five objects are identified as AGNs in dwarf galaxies for the first time. We also identify eight variable radio sources in dwarf galaxies by comparing the VLASS epoch 1 and epoch 2 observations to Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty-centimeters detections presented in A. E. Reines et al. (2020). 
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  4. The black hole occupation fraction (focc) defines the fraction of galaxies that harbor central massive black holes (MBHs), irrespective of their accretion activity level. While it is widely accepted that focc is nearly 100% in local massive galaxies with stellar masses M⋆ ≳ 1010 M⊙, it is not yet clear whether MBHs are ubiquitous in less-massive galaxies. In this work, we present new constraints on focc based on over 20 yr of Chandra imaging data for 1606 galaxies within 50 Mpc. We employ a Bayesian model to simultaneously constrain focc and the specific accretion-rate distribution function, p(λ), where the specific accretion rate is defined as λ = LX/M⋆, where LX is the MBH accretion luminosity in the 2─10 keV range. Notably, we find that p(λ) peaks around 1028ergs−1M⊙−1 ; above this value, p(λ) decreases with increasing λ, following a power law that smoothly connects with the probability distribution of bona fide active galactic nuclei. We also find that the occupation fraction decreases dramatically with decreasing M⋆: in high-mass galaxies (M⋆ ≍ 1011−12 M⊙), the occupation fraction is >93% (a 2σ lower limit), and then declines to 66%−7%+8% (1σ errors) between M⋆ ≍ 109−10 M⊙, and to 33%−9%+13% in the dwarf galaxy regime between M⋆ ≍ 108−9 M⊙. Our results have significant implications for the normalization of the MBH mass function over the mass range most relevant for tidal disruption events, extreme mass ratio inspirals, and MBH merger rates that upcoming facilities are poised to explore. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available October 14, 2026
  5. Abstract: Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array observations have shown that candidate “post-starburst” galaxies (PSBs) at z~0.6 can retain significant molecular gas reservoirs. These results would imply that—unlike many model predictions—galaxies can shut down their star formation before their cold gas reservoirs are depleted. However, these studies inferred star formation rates (SFRs) either from [OII] line fluxes or from spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling and could have missed large dust-obscured contributions to the SFRs. In this study, we present Keck/NIRES observations of 13 massive (M_* >= 10^11M_⊙) PSBs, which allow us to estimate Hα SFRs in these gas-rich PSBs. We confirm the previously inferred low SFRs for the majority of the sample: 11/13 targets show clear Hα absorption, with minimal infilling indicating dust-corrected SFRs of <4.1Msun/yr. These SFRs are notably low given the large H2 reservoirs (∼(1–5) × 10^10Msun) present in 5/13 of these galaxies, placing them significantly offset from star-forming galaxies on the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation for star-forming galaxies. The [NII]/Hα ratios of all 13 PSBs imply contributions from non-star-forming ionization mechanisms (e.g., active galactic nuclei, shocks, or hot evolved stars) to their Hα emission, suggesting that even these low ongoing SFRs may be overestimated. These low Hα SFRs, dust corrected using Av estimates from SED fitting, confirm that these galaxies are very likely quiescent and, thus, that galaxies can quench before their cold gas reservoirs are fully depleted. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 26, 2026
  6. Abstract Active galactic nuclei (AGN) light curves observed with different wave bands show that the variability in longer wavelength bands lags the variability in shorter wavelength bands. Measuring these lags, or reverberation mapping, is used to measure the radial temperature profile and extent of AGN disks, typically with a reprocessing model that assumes X-rays are the main driver of the variability in other wavelength bands. To demonstrate how this reprocessing works with realistic accretion disk structures, we use 3D local shearing box multifrequency radiation magnetohydrodynamic simulations to model the UV-emitting region of an AGN disk, which is unstable to the magnetorotational instability and convection. At the same time, we inject hard X-rays (>1 keV) into the simulation box to study the effects of X-ray irradiation on the local properties of the turbulence and the resulting variability of the emitted UV light curve. We find that disk turbulence is sufficient to drive intrinsic variability in emitted UV light curves and that a damped random walk model is a good fit to this UV light curve for timescales >5 days. Meanwhile, X-ray irradiation has negligible impact on the power spectrum of the emitted UV light curve. Furthermore, the injected X-ray and emitted UV light curves are only correlated if there is X-ray variability on timescales >1 day, in which case we find a correlation coefficientr= 0.34. These results suggest that if the opacity for hard X-rays is scattering dominated as in the standard disk model, hard X-rays are not the main driver of reverberation signals. 
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  7. Abstract We assemble a catalog of 15424 nearby galaxies within 50 Mpc with consistent and homogenized mass, distance, and morphological type measurements. Our catalog combines galaxies from HyperLeda, the NASA-Sloan Atlas, and the Catalog of Local Volume Galaxies. Distances for the galaxies combine best-estimates for flow-corrected redshift-based distances with redshift-independent distances. We also compile magnitude and color information for 11740 galaxies. We use the galaxy colors to estimate masses by creating self-consistent color—mass-to-light ratio relations in four bands; we also provide color transformations of all colors into Sloang–iby using galaxies with overlapping color information. We compile morphology information for 13744 galaxies, and use the galaxy color information to separate early- and late-type galaxies. This catalog is widely applicable for studies of nearby galaxies and for placing these studies in the context of more distant galaxies. We present one application here: a preliminary analysis of the nuclear X-ray activity of galaxies. Out of 1506 galaxies within the sample that have available Chandra X-ray observations, we find that 291 have detected nuclear sources. Of the 291 existing Chandra detections, 249 have log(LX) > 38.3 and available stellar mass estimates. We find that the X-ray active fractions in early-type galaxies are higher than in late-type galaxies, especially for galaxy stellar masses between 109and 1010.5M. We show that these differences may be due at least in part to the increased astrometric uncertainties in late-type galaxies relative to early types. 
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  8. Abstract The shallow potential wells of star-forming dwarf galaxies make their surrounding circumgalactic and intergalactic medium (CGM/IGM) sensitive laboratories for studying the inflows and outflows thought to regulate galaxy evolution. We present new absorption-line measurements in quasar sight lines, probing within projected distances of <300 kpc from 91 star-forming field dwarf galaxies with a median stellar mass of log M / M 8.3 at 0.077 <z< 0.73, from the Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS). In this redshift range, the CUBS quasar spectra cover a suite of transitions including Hi, low, and intermediate metal ions (e.g., Cii, Siii, Ciii, and Siiii), and highly ionized Ovi. This CUBS-Dwarfs survey enables constraints with samples nine times larger than past dwarf CGM/IGM studies with similar ionic coverage. We find that low and intermediate ionization metal absorption is rare around dwarf galaxies, consistent with previous surveys of local dwarfs. In contrast, highly ionized Oviis commonly observed in sight lines that pass within the virial radius of a dwarf, and Ovidetection rates are nonnegligible at projected distances of 1−2× the virial radius. Based on these measurements, we estimate that the Ovi-bearing phase of the CGM/IGM accounts for a dominant share of the metal budget of dwarf galaxies. The absorption kinematics suggest that a relatively modest fraction of the Ovi-bearing gas is formally unbound. Together, these results imply that low-mass systems atz≲ 1 effectively retain a substantial fraction of their metals within the nearby CGM and IGM. 
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  9. Abstract Drawing from the Chandra archive and using a carefully selected set of nearby dwarf galaxies, we present a calibrated high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) luminosity function in the low-mass galaxy regime and search for an already hinted at dependence on metallicity. Our study introduces a new sample of local dwarf galaxies (D< 12.5 Mpc andM*< 5 × 109M), expanding the specific star formation rates (sSFR) and gas-phase metallicities probed in previous investigations. Our analysis of the observed X-ray luminosity function indicates a shallower power-law slope for the dwarf galaxy HMXB population. In our study, we focus on dwarf galaxies that are more representative in terms of sSFR compared to prior work. In this regime, the HMXB luminosity function exhibits significant stochastic sampling at high luminosities. This likely accounts for the pronounced scatter observed in the galaxy-integrated HMXB population’sLX/SFR versus metallicity for our galaxy sample. Our calibration is necessary to understand the active galactic nuclei content of low-mass galaxies identified in current and future X-ray survey fields and has implications for binary population synthesis models, as well as X-ray-driven cosmic heating in the early Universe. 
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  10. Abstract The variability of quasar light curves can be used to study the structure of quasar accretion disks. For example, continuum reverberation mapping uses delays between variability in short and long wavelength bands (shortlags) to measure the radial extent and temperature profile of the disk. Recently, a potential reverse lag, where variations in shorter wavelength bands lag the longer wavelength bands at the much longer viscous timescale, was detected for Fairall 9. Inspired by this detection, we derive a timescale for theselongnegative lags from fluctuation propagation models and recent simulations. We use this timescale to forecast our ability to detect long lags using the Vera Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). After exploring several methods, including the interpolated cross-correlation function, a Von-Neumann estimator,javelin, and a maximum-likelihood Fourier method, we find that our two main methods,javelinand the maximum-likelihood method, can together detect long lags of up to several hundred days in mock LSST light curves. Our methods work best on proposed LSST cadences with long season lengths, but can also work for the current baseline LSST cadence, especially if we add observations from other optical telescopes during seasonal gaps. We find that LSST has the potential to detect dozens to hundreds of additional long lags. Detecting these long lags can teach us about the vertical structure of quasar disks and how it scales with different quasar properties. 
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